TRUTH BE TOLD

HONEY, WE SHRANK OUR FAMILY!

According to the January 2025 McKinsey Global Institute report, for the first time, the number of older people is growing and the number of younger people is declining. Image credit: AJAY GILL on Pexels.

By DR VICKI BISMILLA

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in its 2022 report suggests that while global populations will continue to grow modestly until the end of this century, the pace has slowed by more than half due to reduced levels of fertility.

The report projects that the temporary growth will be mostly in South Asia and Africa with India projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country.

Up to this point in our history the world’s population has been like a pyramid – there were a lot more young people across the bottom of the pyramid to carry out the work of our planet, economies and trades and a lot fewer old people toward the apex who are retired and ageing. So, there was always the assurance that there would be young people growing into jobs and professions necessary to keep the world going.

Now, according to the January 2025 McKinsey Global Institute report, for the first time that age structure is inverting and that pyramid is changing into an obelisk with the number of older people growing and the number of younger people declining.

The actual problem is reported to be falling fertility and fewer babies. In our frenetic competitive world economy, people need to work harder and longer hours to earn a living so young people have difficulty planning for family.

“Two-thirds of humanity lives in countries with fertility below the (population) replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. By 2100, populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 per cent, based on UN projections.” (McKinsey Global report January 15, 2025.)

Seniors will account for one-quarter of global consumption by 2050, double their share of 1997. Developing countries will provide a growing share of global labour supply, making their productivity and prosperity vital for global growth. Young people will have to face lower economic growth and will have to shoulder the cost of more retirees. Countries will need to deploy strategies to raise their fertility rates and workforce numbers as the number of old age deaths exceed new births.

The example that the McKinsey report gives is that in Brazil, for instance, a woman had an average of six babies in 1960, whereas today, she has one child.

As the world becomes youth-scarce, the number of workers per senior will fall. There are no clear examples of countries successfully boosting their birth rates significantly, although many are trying. For instance, the South Korean government is establishing postpartum care centres to make childbirth as trouble-free as possible. Hungary offers a one-time cash incentive to new parents. Norway covers the incomes of new parents up to a maximum of 49 weeks. But these efforts have not managed to push fertility rates back to the population replacement level.

McKinsey has tracked research that shows these efforts, on their own, are unlikely to lead to substantial or sustained increases in birth rate. And furthermore, public pension programs will add pressure on government finances. Potentially more will be spent on health and wellness of ageing populations.

These are uncharted waters for governments as changing population trajectories become more and more evident.

Ironically, only a few decades ago, the issue was population-growth control. Multi-award winning Australian fertility researcher R.J. Aiken writes in his book Population Decline (2024) that in the early 1970s, most opinion leaders in reproductive science were convinced that part of the solution to rapidly ballooning world population growth would be to develop improved forms of birth control, and the World Health Organization’s Human Reproduction Unit co-ordinated and resourced contraceptive research. These high growth rates were only temporary, however. We are now on the cusp of a sudden unexpected reversal in population numbers. Aitken posits that some countries will still have the benefits of young women entering into the reproductive age cohort.

In India he points out, birth rates have already fallen below the replacement value of 2.1 but the population will continue to grow for a few decades.  This is due to the large number of young women (the Indian population contains 173 million girls under 14 years of age) who will be entering the reproductive cohort over a period of time and contributing to sustained population growth even though national fertility rates are at an all-time low. Eventually, however, this momentum will dissipate, and the population will continue to decline.

Other countries that still have a larger number of children and teenagers than retirees may still have a viable workforce for the next few decades but even in those countries the birth rates are declining. And in some countries food insecurity and other social and economic stresses impact mortality rates so life trajectories would be impacted.

Global regions such as North America, Australia, and the EU are net recipients of immigrants and use this as a device to maintain the momentum of their economies.

Net providers of migrants are areas such as Latin America and the Caribbean, Central Europe and the Baltic States, China, the Indian subcontinent, and parts of Africa.

What I have learned from the long, meticulously detailed, deeply inquiring research papers I have referenced here is that policy changes are needed to address the very real issue of population decline. These may include the distribution of taxation load, the provision of adequate parental leave schemes and childcare facilities, access to affordable accommodation and changes in employers’ attitudes towards maternity/paternity leave. These are all part of the measures required to help couples have children if they so desire.

There are millions of young people in Canada who have done well at school, spent money on university and college degrees and diplomas, studied further for professional careers and skilled trades and are gainfully employed, but because the cost of living is high they are not able to start a family. If our governments are conscious of or serious about stabilizing depopulation then these are the people that the government needs to assist to have children if they choose.

Better/longer maternity and parental leaves will certainly help. Incentivizing large companies and employers to have on-site certified daycares would put young parents’ minds at rest that their little ones are properly cared for while they continue their careers. Tax breaks for families with young children would definitely help.

This depopulation trend appears to be a new issue and hopefully our governments will become aware of it and plan for Canada’s generations to come long after we are gone.

Dr Vicki Bismilla is a retired Superintendent of Schools and retired college Vice-President, Academic, and Chief Learning Officer. She has authored two books.